Say it with numbers

Just how many votes does it take to get elected these days?.

Anyone out there old enough to remember the Interflora adverts will recognise the play on the strapline. He might not have been the first to use it, but for my old boss Mark Wood, late of AXA and The Pru, and now deputy chairman of Paternoster, it was much more than a slogan. He expected any argument to be supported by numbers, he made sure the numbers were right, and he made sure that the interpretation of the numbers was watertight. Having tested his managers to the limit with this analytical rigour, he then let them get on with it, so he was far and away the best boss I ever had.

I was reminded of Mark and his catchphrase when I listened to some of the post election coverage. One ex Labour minister suggested that the election showed that 70% of the electorate did not want a Tory Government. Others suggested that the Conservatives, with only 36% of the votes, could not possibly have a mandate to govern.

Well, guess what: in 2005 Labour got a thumping majority with only 35.2% of a 61.4% turnout. As for the 70% not wanting a Tory Government, you can only get to that figure by assuming that the 34.9 % of the electorate who did not vote did not want to see a Tory Government, and thought that the best way to make their wish come true was to stay clear of the polling booth.

Here are some more numbers: for every five electors who voted Labour, nine did not vote at all. The Tories and the Lib Dems between them got 58% of the votes cast, so were actually supported by less than four in ten on the electoral roll. That is scary, but not as scary as the fact that the last Labour Government was actually elected by less than one in four of us all.

It is to be hoped that the new administration really can say it with numbers that have some basis in fact and add up.

Read this article at http://www.candidmoney.com/articles/article106.aspx